Editor’s note: This post is a Fan Submission by Troy.
Looking forward to the last few games of the year, how much tighter can a professional league be than only five points separating its playoff teams? How can one see through the smoke of these pending battles and determine which teams will still be standing on September 20th? Will “my” team make it?
Such speculation is not only fun, but I’m told that “winning sports prognosticators” rank high at parties too…..well, maybe not.
Anyway, today I offer this bit of comparison to help determine where the strength is within the division: Points per Game (PPG) against teams ranked in the top six of the USL West division. Why the top six? Those are the teams headed to the playoffs, and should be the strongest teams. A high PPG would indicate a team that plays well against the best competition, a characteristic of playoff caliber clubs.
Table One (right) shows that the best teams against the top six are Sacramento, OKC, Tulsa, LA Galaxy II, and Seattle S2. Not surprisingly, all five of them are currently in the top six. The remaining top six team, Colorado Springs Switchbacks, does not appear to do well against the top half of the table, averaging less than half a point per game. By contrast, bottom half residents OC Blues and Austin do fairly well against the top six, with the Aztex almost “holding their own” (i.e. a draw/ one point).
So, who benefits from amassing points against weaker opponents, but falters against the strong? For that, we look at comparing the PPG versus the “Top 6” against the season PPG average, or as I like to call it, the “Where’s the Beef” chart.
Here we see that Sacramento actually plays better against the top teams than they do the others. Tulsa and OKC play close to their season average, making them among the best when playing against the top six. Seattle and LA hold their own against the top six, but do much better against lower table teams, while Colorado Springs nearly collapses against the top table clubs.
Once again, I offer these comparisons only for fun. However, if it starts accurately predicting game results, you’ll find my red taillights heading to Tahoe. Enjoy.
