Editor’s Note: This Fan Submission was submitted by Battle Flag Red.

With the final eight weeks of the USL regular season ahead, the Western Division braces itself for the race to the playoffs – the league’s version of Thunderdome, where twelve teams enter; six teams leave. Let’s look at which teams are in the drivers’ seat, and which are pushing to make the last few spots.

The standings table (Table 1) is straightforward, and except for jockeying between themselves, the top four teams have not changed much in the last few weeks. Perhaps the biggest change happened off the field in Sacramento, where last year’s league champion Sacramento Republic hired a new coach. Paul Buckle enters after Preki’s departure for a reality show version of “Where’s Waldo?”

However, ranking teams only by points is a bit of a problem given the logistics of the league. For example, at this point, there is a three game difference between the teams with the most and the least games played (the East Division has four). That is a potential nine point differential which could determine not only the division’s top-seed, but also who ends up in the top six. With that in mind, I looked at league standings by another metric, points-per-game (PPG). This compares the efficiency of a team earning table points regardless of total games played, which should be a more accurate snapshot than “total points” standings.

The PPG comparison (Table 2) shows Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC moving ahead to the top spot, and Seattle Sounders FC2 dropping to third. Vancouver Whitecaps FC2 drops two positions to 10th, to the benefit of Portland Timbers 2 (8th) and Austin Aztex (9th). Although “season PPG” should be more indicative of the division’s true strength, it shares a limitation with “total points.” They are equally weighed by points gained in April as they are the points won last weekend, and therefore, cannot indicate who is playing well “down the stretch.” To find out which teams have begun the push for playoff positioning, I compared each teams’ season PPG to their last four games’ PPG (Table 3). Teams with a comparative higher PPG average over the last four games should, theoretically, be playing better than they were a month or so ago.

Here we see that in the last four games, Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC and Sacramento Republic FC have cooled off a bit, while Orange County Blues FC, Tulsa Roughnecks FC, Portland Timbers 2, Austin Aztex, and Real Monarchs SLC have played better than their respective season averages. Arizona United FC had a horrific month and dropped off the table. There are limitations to this metric as well. Strength of opponents, match scheduling, travel vs home games, etc. all become more important variables when looking at such a small fraction of the season. However, the teams that can steadily increase their PPG despite such variables should be “hot” going into the playoffs.

So what does all this indicate? Well, besides proving that any monkey can learn to make a chart with Excel, I really don’t know. Amazingly, no one has yet been eliminated. That all teams are still in the race at the two-thirds mark of the season bodes well for the players, fans, and USL. Enjoy the passion and the play of the next eight weeks; it should be epic.