Whenever the North American soccer conversation turns to expansion, well-meaning and otherwise educated observers will ask whether the expanding league will suffer a decline in quality. Simple math suggests that an increase in teams will equal a decrease in the number of quality players per team. This is a perfectly reasonable argument until it is properly seen through the economic lens. In soccer, like in any other industry, there is not a finite amount of talent available.
Since 2013, Major League Soccer has grown by one team on the field (adjusting for the dissolution of Chivas USA) with 4-8 more in the wings. NASL has added three and has 3-5 waiting, and the USL… Well, math isn’t really my thing. The point here is that professional soccer in the US and Canada is growing at an exceptional rate, and the dilution question will continue to appear, much like an annoying insurance salesman calling you during your wedding or the birth of your child.
The debunking fact is since the dawn of MLS, we have witnessed a net positive in the quality of play across the professional landscape. Salaries have increased, local prospects have been groomed and sold overseas, and ambitious players from every corner of the globe have arrived on our shores for reasons as varied as the color scheme of the San Jose Clash. This has happened for a surprisingly simple reason.
Professional sports are businesses, as bothersome as this may be to some fans. Businesses exist to make money for the founders and investors, and to create jobs for job seekers.
During the gray days following the end of the old NASL in the 1980’s, very few businesses (read, soccer clubs) existed which were paying money to soccer players. These years constituted the childhood of yours truly and millions of other kids who dreamed of many different career pursuits. Somewhat low on the list of viable options was professional soccer, simply because we didn’t know that there would someday be a future in it. It should come as a surprise to no one therefore, that in 1996 before the first kick of MLS, the average soccer skills of the North American player were lower than in most places where businesses were paying money to soccer players.
Today in North America there exists a thriving, optimistic economic climate for soccer. Customers are paying money to see games in person and on television, and clubs are paying money to players. Coaches and parents can look their young players in the eyes and say with confidence that careers playing soccer will exist in the future, and kids are practicing hard to ensure their place at the top of the pecking order. Much like any growth industry in our modern economy, if you build it, they will come.
This is why dilution of the player pool is a non-issue for soccer, or any growing sport for that matter. The difference in ability between the least skilled players in the USL, supposedly the bottom tier of the pro game in North America, and the next hundred in waiting is negligible at best. Any expansion-related dip in the overall quality of that league will be shallow and short-lived. By the time the ink dries on the contracts of this year’s newest pros, the next crop of players will be ready to compete with their contemporaries for these new jobs.
Even better for the leagues and their clubs, the competition among players is not limited to those groomed domestically. Already we have seen numerous current and potential stars of foreign leagues arrive here and make their mark. Some come directly to MLS, some to lower divisions, and some make the move during college or earlier, seeing the opportunities available in our nascent soccer environment. The competition boosts the quality on the field, attracting even more money and better players, and the cycle continues.
For as long as the market will support it, soccer will be a viable career option for young athletes, and the quality of their supply will rise to meet the quality of the demand. It only works every time.
