You can find last week’s projections here, and an explanation of our methodology here. Projections are as of September 9th, 2017 (last week’s projected position is in parentheses).

Eastern Conference Points Projections

1 (Last Week- 1). Louisville City (64.6)

Current Points: 50

Max Points Remaining: 21

Points to Hit Current Projected 8th: 0 — Current projections in the top 8.

Remaining Games vs Projected Top 8: 4

Elo Points: 1174 (1st)

Controls Own Destiny: Yes

2 (2). Charlotte Independence (56.4)

Current Points: 47

Max Points Remaining: 18

Points to Hit Current Projected 8th: 0 — Current projections in the top 8.

Remaining Games vs Projected Top 8: 5

Elo Points: 1160 (2nd)

Controls Own Destiny: Yes

3 (3). Rochester Rhinos (52.9)

Current Points: 42

Max Points Remaining: 21

Points to Hit Current Projected 8th: 0 — Current projections in the top 8.

Remaining Games vs Projected Top 8: 4

Elo Points: 1130 (5th)

Controls Own Destiny: Yes

4 (4). Charleston Battery (51.3)

Current Points: 41

Max Points Remaining: 18

Points to Hit Current Projected 8th: 0 — Current projections in the top 8.

Remaining Games vs Projected Top 8: 2

Elo Points: 1132 (Tied for 3rd)

Controls Own Destiny: Yes

5 (5). Tampa Bay Rowdies (49.4)

Current Points: 41

Max Points Remaining: 18

Points to Hit Current Projected 8th: 0 — Current projections in the top 8.

Remaining Games vs Projected Top 8: 5

Elo Points: 1132 (Tied for 3rd)

Controls Own Destiny: Yes

6 (7). FC Cincinnati (45.0)

Current Points: 35

Max Points Remaining: 18

Points to Hit Current Projected 8th: 0 — Current projections in the top 8.

Remaining Games vs Projected Top 8: 2

Elo Points: 1093 (9th)

Controls Own Destiny: No

7 (8). New York Red Bulls II (44.6)

Current Points: 38

Max Points Remaining: 15

Points to Hit Current Projected 8th: 0 — Current projections in the top 8.

Remaining Games vs Projected Top 8: 3

Elo Points: 1095 (7th)

Controls Own Destiny: No

8 (9). Bethlehem Steel FC (43.4)

Current Points: 34

Max Points Remaining: 21

Points to Hit Current Projected 8th: 0 — Current projections in the top 8.

Remaining Games vs Projected Top 8: 4

Elo Points: 1094 (8th)

Controls Own Destiny: Yes

9 (6). Orlando City B (43.1)

Current Points: 36

Max Points Remaining: 15

Points to Hit Current Projected 8th: 0.3 projected points off of 8th.

Remaining Games vs Projected Top 8: 3

Elo Points: 1110 (6th)

Controls Own Destiny: No

10 (10). Pittsburgh Riverhounds (40.0)

Current Points: 34

Max Points Remaining: 15

Points to Hit Current Projected 8th: 3.4 projected points off of 8th.

Remaining Games vs Projected Top 8: 4

Elo Points: 1090 (11th)

Controls Own Destiny: No

11 (11). Saint Louis FC (38.0)

Current Points: 31

Max Points Remaining: 15

Points to Hit Current Projected 8th: 5.4 projected points off of 8th.

Remaining Games vs Projected Top 8: 2

Elo Points: 1069 (12th)

Controls Own Destiny: No

12 (12). Ottawa Fury FC (37.8)

Current Points: 31

Max Points Remaining: 18

Points to Hit Current Projected 8th: 5.6 projected points off of 8th.

Remaining Games vs Projected Top 8: 4

Elo Points: 1091 (10th)

Controls Own Destiny: No

13 (13). Harrisburg City Islanders (33.1)

Current Points: 27

Max Points Remaining: 15

Points to Hit Current Projected 8th: 10.3 projected points off of 8th.

Remaining Games vs Projected Top 8: 2

Elo Points: 1049 (14th)

Controls Own Destiny: No

14 (14). Richmond Kickers (30.4)

Current Points: 26

Max Points Remaining: 15

Points to Hit Current Projected 8th: 13 projected points off of 8th.

Remaining Games vs Projected Top 8: 3

Elo Points: 1059 (13th)

Controls Own Destiny: No

15 (15). Toronto FC II (25.3)

Current Points: 22

Max Points Remaining: 12

Points to Hit Current Projected 8th: 18.1 projected points off of 8th.

Remaining Games vs Projected Top 8: 3

Elo Points: 1025 (15th)

Controls Own Destiny: Eliminated from the Playoffs.

Remaining Schedules

Hardest Remaining: Richmond Kickers (1.548 Average Future Opponents), Charlotte Independence (1.545), Tampa Bay Rowdies (1.538)

Easiest Remaining: Saint Louis FC (1.200 Average Future Opponents), Harrisburg City Islanders (1.210), FC Cincinnati (1.224)

Thoughts

For the first time in recent weeks, we’ve seen a change in the top playoff race. Previous sixth place club, Orlando City B, dropped down to ninth place, as Bethlehem Steel FC returned to the projected postseason in eighth. FC Cincinnati and New York Red Bulls II both took advantage of Orlando’s recent falter, and each moved up a spot respectively.

However, despite their newest addition into the projected top eight, Bethlehem holds the slightest of margins over the playoff bubble, only a 0.3 projected points advantage over Orlando City B. Going all the way back to Ottawa in a predicted Twelfth place finish, only 5.6 projected points separate Bethlehem and the edge of the playoff bubble.

Finally, we have approached the final remaining weeks of the season, and the matches played here will go a long way in determining the eventual playoff picture by the end of the season. Charlotte plays five of their remaining six matches against teams in the current projected top eight. The North Carolina side also has the second hardest remaining schedule in the East. At the other end, Saint Louis FC and FC Cincinnati, two clubs fighting for a playoff spot, can benefit from some of the easiest remaining fixtures left in the conference. Particularly for Saint Louis, a side who has been stalking playoff spots in the past couple weeks, they have the chance to take advantage of an easy finish and potentially sneak their way into the postseason. From here, FC Cincinnati can only improve their chances with an easy slate of matches.

What are your thoughts on this week’s Eastern Conference Points Projections? Will we see any changes in the coming weeks for the conference playoff picture? Which team currently on the bubble has the best chance at making the postseason this season? Let us know in the comments below!