Editor’s Note: This Fan Submission is from Battle Flag Red.

With only four weeks of regular season games left, the race for USL Western Conference playoff berths is in full gallop. Currently, there is only a four point spread between first and sixth place, while remaining games range from six (Colorado Springs, Orange County, Seattle Sounders 2, Arizona and Sacramento) to only three (Tulsa Roughnecks). That three game difference leaves as many as nine points on the table for someone to grab and jockey themselves into a playoff position.

To get an idea of what might happen over the next few weeks, I compared each team’s average for gaining points both home and away. This is a common metric, but one that leaves the strength of the remaining opponents unaccounted. With so few games remaining, the strength of the opponent becomes a greater factor in determining who will get the points

To increase the validity of the metric, I used each team’s “possible points earned average” (PPE) for both home and away games against both strong and weak opponents (Table 1). Think of these numbers as you would a baseball batting average. For example, OKC wins 73.3% of the points possible when playing a strong team at home, but only 27.8% of the possible points when away. Strong and weak opponents were determined by their position in the current table (i.e. top six and bottom six teams).

The final calculation is straightforward: take the remaining points available for the season and multiply by the applicable PPE based on each team’s remaining schedule (Table 2).

The projection does not vary too far from the present points table, except that it shows Orange County jumping to second place, and Sacramento squeezing by Tulsa into the last playoff position.

Teams in the top five moving between themselves may not be compelling theater even for fans of those teams. However, Seattle Sounders 2’s outstanding record against strong teams at home, or Orange County’s weakness against strong teams away (Table 1), provides incentive for teams to position themselves to face those sides in the best location. Even if your favorite team is solidly in the top, there may still be drama to play out “down the stretch.”

As always, this is an exercise in fun. After all, how can you earn fractional points in real soccer? Enjoy the discussion, and enjoy the next few games; I think it will be one wild ride.