You can find last week’s rankings here, and an explanation of our methodology here. Projections are as of October 1st, 2017 (last week’s projected position is in parentheses).

Eastern Conference Points Projections

1 (1). Louisville City (60.1)

Current Points: 56

Max Points Remaining: 6

Points to Hit Current Projected 8th: 0 — Current projections in the top 8.

Remaining Games vs Projected Top 8: 1

Elo Points: 1175 (1st)

Controls Own Destiny: Clinched playoff spot.

2 (2). Charleston Battery (51.2)

Current Points: 48

Max Points Remaining: 6

Points to Hit Current Projected 8th: 0 — Current projections in the top 8.

Remaining Games vs Projected Top 8: 1

Elo Points: 1142 (2nd)

Controls Own Destiny: Clinched playoff spot.

3 (3). Charlotte Independence (50.4)

Current Points: 48

Max Points Remaining: 6

Points to Hit Current Projected 8th: 0 — Current projections in the top 8.

Remaining Games vs Projected Top 8: 2

Elo Points: 1140 (3rd)

Controls Own Destiny: Clinched playoff spot.

4 (4). Tampa Bay Rowdies (50.1)

Current Points: 46

Max Points Remaining: 9

Points to Hit Current Projected 8th: 0 — Current projections in the top 8.

Remaining Games vs Projected Top 8: 2

Elo Points: 1138 (4th)

Controls Own Destiny: Yes

5 (5). Rochester Rhinos (48.6)

Current Points: 44

Max Points Remaining: 9

Points to Hit Current Projected 8th: 0 — Current projections in the top 8.

Remaining Games vs Projected Top 8: 1

Elo Points: 1122 (5th)

Controls Own Destiny: Yes

6 (7). FC Cincinnati (47.1)

Current Points: 43

Max Points Remaining: 6

Points to Hit Current Projected 8th: 0 — Current projections in the top 8.

Remaining Games vs Projected Top 8: 2

Elo Points: 1107 (7th)

Controls Own Destiny: No

7 (6). Bethlehem Steel FC (45.0)

Current Points: 40

Max Points Remaining: 9

Points to Hit Current Projected 8th: 0 — Current projections in the top 8.

Remaining Games vs Projected Top 8: 1

Elo Points: 1097 (8th)

Controls Own Destiny: No

8 (9). New York Red Bulls II (44.7)

Current Points: 41

Max Points Remaining: 9

Points to Hit Current Projected 8th: 0 — Current projections in the top 8.

Remaining Games vs Projected Top 8: 2

Elo Points: 1095 (9th)

Controls Own Destiny: No

9 (8). Orlando City B (44.5)

Current Points: 42

Max Points Remaining: 6

Points to Hit Current Projected 8th: 0.2 projected points off of 8th.

Remaining Games vs Projected Top 8: 2

Elo Points: 1114 (6th)

Controls Own Destiny: No

10 (13). Harrisburg City Islanders (38.0)

Current Points: 37

Max Points Remaining: 3

Points to Hit Current Projected 8th: 6.7 projected points off of 8th.

Remaining Games vs Projected Top 8: 1

Elo Points: 1062 (13th)

Controls Own Destiny: Eliminated from playoff contention.

11 (10). Saint Louis FC (37.9)

Current Points: 35

Max Points Remaining: 6

Points to Hit Current Projected 8th: 6.8 projected points off of 8th.

Remaining Games vs Projected Top 8: 1

Elo Points: 1068 (12th)

Controls Own Destiny: Eliminated from playoff contention.

12 (11). Pittsburgh Riverhounds (37.5)

Current Points: 35

Max Points Remaining: 6

Points to Hit Current Projected 8th: 7.2 projected points off of 8th.

Remaining Games vs Projected Top 8: 1

Elo Points: 1079 (11th)

Controls Own Destiny: Eliminated from playoff contention.

13 (12). Ottawa Fury FC (36.4)

Current Points: 34

Max Points Remaining: 6

Points to Hit Current Projected 8th: 8.3 projected points off of 8th.

Remaining Games vs Projected Top 8: 1

Elo Points: 1086 (10th)

Controls Own Destiny: Eliminated from playoff contention.

14 (14). Richmond Kickers (30.9)

Current Points: 29

Max Points Remaining: 6

Points to Hit Current Projected 8th: 13.8 projected points off of 8th.

Remaining Games vs Projected Top 8: 1

Elo Points: 1053 (14th)

Controls Own Destiny: Eliminated from playoff contention.

15 (15). Toronto FC II (26.7)

Current Points: 25

Max Points Remaining: 6

Points to Hit Current Projected 8th: 18 projected points off of 8th.

Remaining Games vs Projected Top 8: 2

Elo Points: 1025 (15th)

Controls Own Destiny: Eliminated from playoff contention.

Thoughts

The Eastern Conference playoff picture became clearer this week, as Charleston and Charlotte joined newly crowned #1 seed, Louisville City, in a playoff spot. That leaves six clubs remaining in contention for the final five spots in the Eastern Conference. Tampa, Rochester and Cincinnati have edged closer to clinching with each coming week, and are likely safe to punch their ticket to the postseason. Finally, Bethlehem, Orlando City B and last year’s champion, New York Red Bulls II, remain to fight for the final two spots. It has been a hotly contest race in recent weeks, as each of these three clubs have found themselves in a playoff spot, as well as being on the outside looking in at the top eight.

Last week proved to be the end of the line for many clubs in the East, as Pittsburgh, Saint Louis, Harrisburg and Ottawa all saw their postseason hopes come to an end. Each one fought valiantly up to this point in the season, and should hold their heads high, the East is a very strong conference, particularly in its top half clubs. These four clubs can take solace in playing spoiler though, as between them, they have four matches against clubs currently in the projected top eight, which can drastically impact seeding and clinching scenarios for the conference.

These last few matches of the season will go a long way in determining seeding for the playoffs. Louisville has already locked up home field advantage throughout the playoffs, and Charleston and Charlotte are close to clinching home playoff matches as well. Realistically, I believe the race for the final spot in the top four is down to Tampa Bay or Rochester — with the Rowdies just barely edging the Rhinos this week. Keep an eye on this race over the next two weeks!

What are your thoughts on this week’s Eastern Conference points projections? With six teams left in contention and only five spots left in the playoffs, which sides do you think make the postseason and who is left out? What potential first round matches are you most looking forward to in the playoffs? Let us know in the comments below!