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USL Eastern Conference Strength of Schedule Projections - Week 26

You can find last week’s projections here, and an explanation of our methodology here. Projections are as of September 16th, 2017 (last week’s projected position is in parentheses).

Eastern Conference Points Projections

1 (1). Louisville City (63.7)

Current Points: 51

Max Points Remaining: 18

Points to Hit Current Projected 8th: 0 — Current projections in the top 8.

Remaining Games vs Projected Top 8: 3

Elo Points: 1173 (1st)

Controls Own Destiny: Clinched playoff spot.

2 (2). Charlotte Independence (55.1)

Current Points: 48

Max Points Remaining: 15

Points to Hit Current Projected 8th: 0 — Current projections in the top 8.

Remaining Games vs Projected Top 8: 5

Elo Points: 1159 (2nd)

Controls Own Destiny: Yes

3 (3). Rochester Rhinos (52.2)

Current Points: 43

Max Points Remaining: 18

Points to Hit Current Projected 8th: 0 — Current projections in the top 8.

Remaining Games vs Projected Top 8: 4

Elo Points: 1131 (5th)

Controls Own Destiny: Yes

4 (4). Charleston Battery (52.1)

Current Points: 44

Max Points Remaining: 15

Points to Hit Current Projected 8th: 0 — Current projections in the top 8.

Remaining Games vs Projected Top 8: 2

Elo Points: 1136 (3rd)

Controls Own Destiny: Yes

5 (5). Tampa Bay Rowdies (49.6)

Current Points: 41

Max Points Remaining: 18

Points to Hit Current Projected 8th: 0 — Current projections in the top 8.

Remaining Games vs Projected Top 8: 5

Elo Points: 1132 (4th)

Controls Own Destiny: Yes

6 (6). FC Cincinnati (45.9)

Current Points: 39

Max Points Remaining: 12

Points to Hit Current Projected 8th: 0 — Current projections in the top 8.

Remaining Games vs Projected Top 8: 1

Elo Points: 1100 (7th)

Controls Own Destiny: Yes

7 (8). Bethlehem Steel FC (43.3)

Current Points: 35

Max Points Remaining: 18

Points to Hit Current Projected 8th: 0 — Current projections in the top 8.

Remaining Games vs Projected Top 8: 3

Elo Points: 1095 (8th)

Controls Own Destiny: Yes

8 (7). New York Red Bulls II (43.1)

Current Points: 38

Max Points Remaining: 12

Points to Hit Current Projected 8th: 0 — Current projections in the top 8.

Remaining Games vs Projected Top 8: 2

Elo Points: 1089 (10th)

Controls Own Destiny: Yes

9 (9). Orlando City B (41.4)

Current Points: 36

Max Points Remaining: 12

Points to Hit Current Projected 8th: 1.7 projected points off of 8th.

Remaining Games vs Projected Top 8: 3

Elo Points: 1104 (6th)

Controls Own Destiny: No

10 (10). Pittsburgh Riverhounds (40.1)

Current Points: 35

Max Points Remaining: 12

Points to Hit Current Projected 8th: 3 projected points off of 8th.

Remaining Games vs Projected Top 8: 3

Elo Points: 1089 (10th)

Controls Own Destiny: No

11 (11). Saint Louis FC (40.0)

Current Points: 34

Max Points Remaining: 12

Points to Hit Current Projected 8th: 3.1 projected points off of 8th.

Remaining Games vs Projected Top 8: 2

Elo Points: 1075 (12th)

Controls Own Destiny: No

12 (12). Ottawa Fury FC (37.7)

Current Points: 32

Max Points Remaining: 15

Points to Hit Current Projected 8th: 5.4 projected points off of 8th.

Remaining Games vs Projected Top 8: 3

Elo Points: 1092 (9th)

Controls Own Destiny: No

13 (13). Harrisburg City Islanders (34.3)

Current Points: 31

Max Points Remaining: 9

Points to Hit Current Projected 8th: 8.8 projected points off of 8th.

Remaining Games vs Projected Top 8: 1

Elo Points: 1052 (14th)

Controls Own Destiny: No

14 (14). Richmond Kickers (29.5)

Current Points: 26

Max Points Remaining: 12

Points to Hit Current Projected 8th: 13.6 projected points off of 8th.

Remaining Games vs Projected Top 8: 2

Elo Points: 1055 (13th)

Controls Own Destiny: No

15 (15). Toronto FC II (24.1)

Current Points: 22

Max Points Remaining: 9

Points to Hit Current Projected 8th: 19 projected points off of 8th.

Remaining Games vs Projected Top 8: 3

Elo Points: 1021 (15th)

Controls Own Destiny: Eliminated from playoff contention.

Remaining Schedules

Hardest Remaining: Charlotte Independence (1.638 Average Future Opponents), Toronto FC II (1.567), Richmond Kickers (1.529).

Easiest Remaining: Saint Louis FC (1.184 Average Future Opponents), FC Cincinnati (1.234), Louisville City (1.326)

Thoughts

This weekend, Louisville City became the first club in the East to clinch a spot in the postseason. The Kentucky club has made two consecutive conference finals, both as the #2 seed. This season, however, Louisville look to be on the fast track to wrap up the #1 spot in the conference. Louisville’s projected points advantage has now grown to 8.6 points over second place Charlotte.

Speaking of Charlotte, they face the most daunting remaining schedule of the conference to finish the season. The Independence’s five remaining matches all come against clubs currently in the projected top eight. With Louisville City having the third easiest remaining schedule, Charlotte may have a tough time catching the conference leaders.

Since their 12 match unbeaten streak ended, Orlando City B has lost two consecutive matches by a score of 2-0. This reversal of recent form has dropped the Baby Lions from the projected playoff picture. Fellow MLS 2 sides have taken advantage of OCB’s slip up, as Bethlehem Steel FC and defending champions, New York Red Bulls II, have moved into the top eight, just mere points ahead of the bubble. As the regular season begins to wind down, these final two spots in the playoffs will be of much contest among bubble teams in the East.

What are your thoughts on this week’s points projections? Which clubs will take the final two spots in the playoffs? How do you think Charlotte will do in their final five matches? Let us know in the comments down below!